NEW YORK (The Deal) -- Dealmakers looking forward to a moderation in market volatility as good for M&A activity will still have to cope with a challenging economic environment that will continue to quell appetite for bold acquisitions.
That was the lesson to be taken away on Wednesday from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's semiannual testimony to Congress, where he characterized the environment as difficult, both economically and fiscally.
Bankers and lawyers have noted such conditions have made it hard for dealmakers to predict revenues in potential acquisitions. The contrast between a rising stock market and higher valuations against a still-stagnant economic backdrop has further dissuaded M&A.
Bernanke erred to the dovish side, noting unemployment remained "quite high" and inflation was still below target. "Our overall policy including our rate policy is going to remain highly accommodative for the foreseeable future," he said. "We continue to provide easy money to address jobs and inflation."His tone was a variation from his comments in June, which placed greater emphasis on the prospect of a slowdown in Fed asset purchases if the economy continued to improve. Data since then has painted a mixed outlook: U.S. retail sales rose at half their anticipated rate in June, while manufacturing expanded at its fastest rate in five months in July. Illustrating how far the economy is from a "full" recovery, the Fed chairman said he considered normal long-run unemployment as between 5.2% and 6%. The unemployment rate was 7.6% in June when Bernanke said long-term unemployment and under-employment remained key issues. The Fed chairman said government spending cuts were likely to hit GDP by 1.5%, or the equivalent of 750,000 jobs, and restrain economic growth over the next few quarters "by more than we currently expect." Other uncertainties such as the debt ceiling -- national debt is more than $17 trillion -- were also likely to evolve in a way that could hamper the recovery, he warned. Legislators also grilled Bernanke on the vulnerability of equity markets to stimulus withdrawal, given the strong correlation between the market rally and expansion in the Fed's balance sheet. He acknowledged a recovery in corporate profits was well ahead of a weak labor market, reassuring Congress that stronger jobs growth remained pivotal to any change in asset purchases.
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