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UPS, Boeing Ride Bumpy Earnings Road

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) - This week earnings reports and corporate guidance battle the Federal Reserve for headlines as Fed Chief Bernanke testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

Bernanke will likely repeat the theme he presented last week and re-iterate that QE 3 and QE4 will continue for the foreseeable future. The problem is that stock specific negative news can trump the jawboning from the Fed. Between testimonies traders and investors will be reading the Beige Book Wednesday afternoon.

Before Bernanke speaks we will see key economic data: retail sales on Monday, CPI, industrial production, the NAHB Housing Market Index on Tuesday, and housing starts Wednesday morning. Of these, my focus is on the housing market index vs. the neutral 50 reading and single family housing starts vs. a neutral annual rate of 600,000 units.

Bernanke's testimony also begins after the market digests earnings reports from the eight stocks that report quarterly results on Monday and Tuesday. To review my pre-earnings profiles view Earnings Scorecard: Yum, Yahoo! On Deck, which includes four key bank earnings and two Dow components.

On July 5 in Aloca and 'Too Big to Fail' Banks Key Next Week's Earnings Alcoa and 'Too Big to Fail' Banks Key Next Week's Earnings I profiled four bank stocks, two community banks and two of the four 'too big to fail' money center banks.

Here's how they performed late last week vs. my value levels, pivots and risky levels:

Commerce Bancshares (CBSH - Get Report) ($45.88) matched EPS estimates earning 72 cents per share. The stock traded to a new multi-year high at $46.97 on July 11 then dipped to $45.01 the same day continuing to trade between my monthly value level at $41.48 and my semiannual risky level at $47.20. I have a weekly pivot this week at $45.44. The stock still has a hold rating and is 24.4% overvalued after gaining 22.6% over the last 12 months.
[Read: <a target="blank" data-add-tracking="true" href=""><em>Buy Yahoo! Ahead of Earnings</em></a>]

Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) ($44.84) matched EPS estimates earning 57 cents per share. The stock traded to a new multi-year high at $46.85 on July 8 testing my monthly risky level at $46.27 where investors could have booked profits. My semiannual value level is $41.09 with annual and weekly pivots at $43.44 and $43.88, and the monthly risky level at $46.27. The stock still has a hold rating and is 26.4% overvalued after gaining 47.6% over the last 12 months.
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JPM $62.16 -2.60%
WFC $49.80 -1.60%
UPS $104.25 -0.49%
BA $132.51 -1.10%
CBSH $46.25 -2.00%


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,717.79 -173.37 -0.97%
S&P 500 2,059.08 -22.35 -1.07%
NASDAQ 4,759.32 -58.2740 -1.21%

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