NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Strength on Thursday in reaction to Fed Chief Ben Bernanke's dovish comments Wednesday after the close fueled strength to and just above my monthly risky levels, now considered pivots at 15,437 Dow industrials, 1669.0 S&P 500 and 1030.75 on the Russell 2000. Wednesday's close was above my monthly pivot at 3510 on the Nasdaq, which targeted the monthly levels on these three indices. My monthly risky level is 6758 Dow Transports.
My technical signal to confirm a cycle high for the five major averages is simultaneous weekly closes below the five-week MMAs and that just hasn't happened yet this year. Today the five-week MMAs are well below market levels at 15,007 Dow industrials, 1617.5 S&P 500, 3413 Nasdaq, 6252 Dow transports and 978.57 Russell 2000. Closes below these levels today appear highly unlikely.
My quarterly value levels are 14,288 Dow industrials, 1525.6 S&P 500, 3284 Nasdaq, 5348 Dow transports and 863.05 on the Russell 2000 with July's pivots and risky level at 15,437 Dow Industrials, 1669.0 S&P 500, 3510 Nasdaq, 6758 Dow transports and 1030.75 Russell 2000. Three of the major averages are still below their May 20/May 22 highs at 15,542.40 Dow Industrials, 1687.18 S&P 500 and 6568.41 Dow transports. The Nasdaq set a new multi-year high at 3579.29 on July 11 with the Russell 2000 setting a new all time high at 1033.34.
Weekly closes above all of the monthly levels indicate potential strength to my semiannual risky levels at 16,490 Dow industrials, 1743.5 S&P 500, 3759 Nasdaq, 7104 Dow transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. Weekly closes below the quarterly value levels indicate risk to my annual value levels at 12,696 Dow industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq and 809.54 Russell 2000.Fundamentally, stocks remain under a ValuEngine valuation warning with 75.0% of all stocks overvalued and with 40.6% of all stocks overvalued by 20% or more.
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