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NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- In moves rarely seen these days, exchange-traded funds that track valuations in precious metals are surging into the later parts of this week.
These moves came after comments from
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, which showed the central bank remains committed to holding interest rates near their lows -- even if we do see modest improvements in the labor market.
The effect on commodities prices was pronounced, with gold seeing single-session gains of more than 3%, silver rising by 4.6% and oil moving to 15-month highs after the latest Fed meeting minutes were released. But does this signal a true reversal in the badly beaten precious metals space? Should investors start looking to build new long positions?
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Earlier in the year, metals investors holding positions in products such as the
iShares Silver Trust(SLV), the
iPath Dow Jones UBS Copper Total Return Sub-Index(JJC) and the
SPDR Gold Shares Fund(GLD) had high hopes for major bull rallies.
In an economic environment supported by central bank stimulus, many metals forecasts suggested gold and silver would be used as an inflation hedge, an alternative to a weakening U.S. dollar, and protective safe haven in times of economic turmoil.
Even alternative scenarios were bullish as a strong economic rebound would stoke both luxury and industrial demand (silver, in particular, is a key component in everything from automobiles, to electronics, to solar panels).
But the market reality was quite the opposite, and the commonly-traded GLD and SLV ETFs have already seen massive year-to-date losses of 22.6% and 33.5%, respectively. These moves were perhaps most surprising in silver, given its importance as an industrial metal. But with weakening manufacturing data in emerging markets and not much evidence of progress in the global recovery, there have been few reasons to buy -- and silver has had its worst performance in nearly 30 years.
So, what does all this suggest for the short-term rallies seen this week? Are we seeing the beginning of the end for the bearish moves in silver and other precious metals?
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Given the strength of the longer-term trends, there is not much to suggest that this week's activity marks a true bottom. From a fundamental perspective, demand remains weak while supply moves in the opposite direction. But when we compare silver prices to its main counterparts, there are some reasons to expect moves higher in silver on a relative basis.