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Wait for Caesars to Offer Better Odds

Interestingly, Apollo's shares didn't immediately increase after the announcement. Caesars represents over $400 million of Apollo's $3.27 billion market cap. On the day of the announcement, Apollo closed slightly lower. On Thursday, the market figured it out, and Apollo was trading up over 3%.

Two other notable holders include Paulson & Co. and Soros Fund Management. Investors interested in buying will probably not want to forget who's the likely counterparty selling. Most people haven't found tremendous success as the counterparty to the above three big-money players.

Apollo stated it intends to invest at least $500 million into the newly split company, representing roughly 40% ownership. Compared to the current 70% ownership of Caesars, at $500 million, the offering represents a dilution of ownership for Apollo. No one is in a better position than it to evaluate the potential risks and rewards of splitting Caesars. If Apollo wants lower exposure, it sends a message you should pay close attention to.

With that said, I can envision Caesars growing, and widespread online gaming becoming a reality in the near future. I love the properties it owns, and when the economy recovers (and it will), it's well positioned to benefit. Time is on your side, and if you wait until the excitement to passes, you will have another chance to roll the dice, but at a price under $16.

At the time of publication, the author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Robert Weinstein is an active trader focusing on the psychological importance of risk mitigation, emotion and financial behavior of market participants. Robert co-founded the investing blog StockSaints, where he writes a journal about his trading activity and experiences.

In addition to TheStreet, Robert also contributes to Real Money Pro, providing real-time trading ideas for stocks, options and futures.
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