With the market rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rising by 95 basis points since the end of April, Huntington -- an asset-sensitive bank -- had seen its shares rise by 9% over the previous two weeks through Tuesday's close.
In its first-quarter 10-Q filing, Huntington said that in a scenario of a parallel rise in market rate of 100 basis points, its interest income would increase by 37.1% over a one-year period, while its interest expense would increase by only 33.5%. But what we have actually seen over the past two months is a steepening of the yield curve, with long-term rates rising as short-term rates remaining very low, because the Federal Reserve continues to keep its target federal funds rate in a range of zero to 0.25%.
In an interview on Wednesday, KBW analyst Christopher Mutascio said the run-up in stocks of asset-sensitive banks was misguided.The broad indexes on Wednesday ended mixed, following a report from China that its exports during June had declined 3.1% from a year earlier, and the release of minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, indicating the Federal Reserve could curtail its bond-buying as early as September. The KBW Bank Index (I:BKX) was down 1% to close at 63.93, with all but two of the 24 index components showing declines. One day after federal regulators proposed doubling a key capital requirement for the nation's largest banks, most analysts agreed that the higher supplementary Basel III Tier 1 leverage ratio requirement would do little to curtail banks' plans to deploy capital through dividend payouts and share buybacks. The nation's largest banks will kick off their second-quarter earnings season on Friday with JPMorgan Chase (JPM - Get Report) and Well Fargo (WFC) set to announce their results before the market open. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimate JPMorgan will post second-quarter earnings of $1.44 a share, declining from $1.59 in the first quarter, but increasing from $1.21 during the second quarter of 2012. For Wells Fargo, the consensus second-quarter EPS estimate is 93 cents, increasing from 92 cents the previous quarter and 82 cents a year earlier.