Jobs Report: A Tale of Two Trades
Markets may have worked into negative territory for a short blip on Friday because a strong jobs report hints that the Fed could taper as soon as September, Gene Goldman, director of research at Cetera Financial said.
A spike in the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note seemed to telegraph that possibility.
The 10-year note on Friday was plummeting 1 23/32, boosting the yield to 2.715%, the highest level seen in about two years. TheStreet's Jim Cramer said Friday that the 10-year's run this week to 2.6% from 1.6% yield on May 22 shows that the bond market "correctly ran ahead of tapering." Bond trades on Treasuries anticipate what the federal funds rate will be in the future. Though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last month reiterated that the central bank would not raise short-term rates any time soon, market participants do understand that rates could increase within a 10-year timeframe, which would affect the 10-year note.
Before it raises the federal funds rate, though, the Fed must begin to scale back its quantitative easing efforts.Unprecedented monetary policy has lent support to the rally in major U.S. equity markets since the bottom of the financial crisis in mid-2009. The worry among many traders is that when the Fed pulls back on stimulus, it could hurt the market, especially if tapering by the central bank occurs too soon and adversely affects the economy. Of course, the degree to which the macroeconomic environment can handle a Fed pullback and stay stable remains to be seen. Which introduces the other trade in this "bizzaro" market world: Stocks gapped up at about 12 p.m. ET to session highs and held on to gains by the closing bell. This, said Quincy Krosby, a market strategist at Prudential Financial, could have been a result of the market having fully digested the jobs report and having determined that the positives outweighed the worries of a Fed taper. "It sounds cliche, but this market wants to move higher," said Krosby. The Institute for Management Supply's manufacturing index on Monday lifted higher than 50 at 50.9, which indicates growth in the industry. A report last week on New homes sales rose at a quicker-than-anticipated annual clip by 476,000 in May. Friday's report on June jobs was solid. The indicators are all steadily improving.
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