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Tapering or Papering: Gold, Crude Oil in Teen Years

The weekly chart for the yield on the 10-year Treasury (2.488%) shows that the trend of the decline in yields that began in mid-2007 became the 200-week simple moving average. This moving average trend was tested and held last week at 2.576%. My new semiannual value level is 3.227% with my annual pivot at 2.476% and annual risky level at 1.981%.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters

A way to trade the Treasury market is via the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ($110.44) which stayed above its 200-week SMA at $107.17 at last week's low at $107.76. This week's value level is $106.47 with a monthly pivot at $111.73, an annual pivot at $116.26 and an annual risky level at $120.42.

The Comex Gold Bubble Will Not Re-inflate. Comex gold futures plunged below its 200-week SMA during the week of April 20, after being above this key moving average since February 2002. Last week the precious metal tested a multi-year low at $1179.4. With this year's collapse the weekly chart for gold has become extremely oversold. Last week's close at $1,223.7 is just above this week's pivot at $1,220.5 with a new monthly pivot at $1,289.4, and my annual pivot remains at $1,599.9.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters

One way to trade gold is the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ($119.11). My weekly pivot is $117.76 with a monthly pivot at $124.65 and annual and quarterly risky levels at $153.45 and $154.88.

During last week's weakness for gold, Kinross Gold (KGC - Get Report) ($5.10) was upgraded to buy from hold according to ValuEngine. This stock has become 65.2% undervalued after trading as low as $4.53 on June 26. My new monthly value level is $4.59 with a weekly risky level at $5.82 and a new semiannual risky level at $6.23. This stock was trading at $6.48 when it was downgraded to hold from buy on June 4.

The Nymex Crude Oil Bubble Will Not Re-inflate. Crude oil continues to trade back and forth around its 200-week SMA, now at $88.80. Oil has traded around this pivotal level since mid-2009 following the bursting of the crude oil bubble. My quarterly value level is $91.75 with a weekly pivot at $95.27 and monthly risky level at $101.69.
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