This Day On The Street
Continue to site right-arrow
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
Stocks Under $10 with 50-100% upside potential - 14 days FREE!

Tapering or Papering: Gold, Crude Oil in Teen Years

Stocks in this article: TLT GLD KGC XLE

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Friday's closes were also monthly, quarterly and semiannual closes and thus we have new longer term value levels, pivots and risky levels for U.S. Treasury yields, Comex gold, Nymex crude oil, and the euro vs. the dollar.

Four of my investment themes for the teenage years of the new millennium are that the low yield environment will continue, that the gold and crude oil bubbles will not re-inflate and that the euro vs. the dollar will remain in a trading range.

Comments by Fed Chief Ben Bernanke at his press conference following the June 19 FOMC were a game changer in my opinion. The idea that the amount of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities bought under QE3 and QE4 could begin a tapering process later this year set off a wave of volatility. Long term yields rose, gold prices crashed, crude oil slipped into a trading range and the dollar strengthened.

Last week several Fed officials chimed in with the call that money printing or papering would continue into 2014. This stabilized the markets setting in place trading ranges as the debate continues on tapering or papering.

Today I will evaluate the risk/reward for these markets for July and the rest of 2013. I will also provide buy-and-trade levels for trading ETFs or stocks that represents these markets. Later today I will post the effects of tapering or papering on the five major equity averages.

Here are updates for four of my themes for the teenage years of the new millennium for these markets:

The 10-Year Treasury Note Low Yield Environment Will Continue. On July 25, 2012 this yield hit a record low at 1.377%. After Bernanke's press conference on June 19 the yield on the 10-Year began to rise from 2.20% to a multi-year high at 2.667% into June 24. Bernanke set a tone that changed the perception about QE infinity. He described the conditions that would lead to the tapering of quantitative easing. As other Fed speakers opined that papering would continue, the 10-year yield declined to a test of my annual pivot at 2.476% last Friday.

1 of 3

Select the service that is right for you!

Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!


DOW 17,804.80 +26.65 0.15%
S&P 500 2,070.65 +9.42 0.46%
NASDAQ 4,765.38 +16.9840 0.36%

Brokerage Partners

Rates from

  • Mortgage
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs