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Tapering or Papering: Gold, Crude Oil in Teen Years

Stocks in this article: TLT GLD KGC XLE

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Friday's closes were also monthly, quarterly and semiannual closes and thus we have new longer term value levels, pivots and risky levels for U.S. Treasury yields, Comex gold, Nymex crude oil, and the euro vs. the dollar.

Four of my investment themes for the teenage years of the new millennium are that the low yield environment will continue, that the gold and crude oil bubbles will not re-inflate and that the euro vs. the dollar will remain in a trading range.

Comments by Fed Chief Ben Bernanke at his press conference following the June 19 FOMC were a game changer in my opinion. The idea that the amount of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities bought under QE3 and QE4 could begin a tapering process later this year set off a wave of volatility. Long term yields rose, gold prices crashed, crude oil slipped into a trading range and the dollar strengthened.

Last week several Fed officials chimed in with the call that money printing or papering would continue into 2014. This stabilized the markets setting in place trading ranges as the debate continues on tapering or papering.

Today I will evaluate the risk/reward for these markets for July and the rest of 2013. I will also provide buy-and-trade levels for trading ETFs or stocks that represents these markets. Later today I will post the effects of tapering or papering on the five major equity averages.

Here are updates for four of my themes for the teenage years of the new millennium for these markets:

The 10-Year Treasury Note Low Yield Environment Will Continue. On July 25, 2012 this yield hit a record low at 1.377%. After Bernanke's press conference on June 19 the yield on the 10-Year began to rise from 2.20% to a multi-year high at 2.667% into June 24. Bernanke set a tone that changed the perception about QE infinity. He described the conditions that would lead to the tapering of quantitative easing. As other Fed speakers opined that papering would continue, the 10-year yield declined to a test of my annual pivot at 2.476% last Friday.

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