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BlackBerry is worth about $10-$12 at junk-yard scrap metal prices, something I have written about in several articles, and Cramer mentions in the above video. However, when a stock is in play and crashing, it usually overshoots the mark before finding support. This is sometimes referred to as a dead-cat bounce. Don't be shocked if BlackBerry trades in single digits next week. You may want to wait until Tuesday or Wednesday before dipping your big toe into waters that are probably colder than the North Sea.
Also, don't dig your heels in thinking the balance sheet per share valuation will be your eventual lifeboat. Everyone else knows about the valuation, and the smart money knows how to discount the patients and other intellectual property.
In light of
recent patent cases, not only is BlackBerry worth less on paper, but will continue to decline faster than reported if losses accelerate. That's why BlackBerry's "going dark" with guidance and subscriber numbers, increases investor peril.
Bottom line: if you believe BlackBerry has the ability to make phones that have the wow factor AND are so magnificent that people will give up their Androids and iPhones to change over, the stock is a clear buy; otherwise it's only a matter of time before we see SOS flares firing.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.Follow @RobertWeinsteinThis article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.