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A BlackBerry Bull Who's Way Above Consensus

Here's why.

The former Sony-Ericsson CEO is on the BlackBerry board. This ex-CEO is also a big backer of another company working closely on the "Internet of Things." A few months ago, BlackBerry decided to pull out of Japan entirely, perhaps setting the stage to return with Sony as a partner. Finally, Sony has already indicated that it would support three mobile OSs: Android, Microsoft (MSFT) and another. BlackBerry is the next most popular. Therefore, BlackBerry could likely benefit from this kind of licensing relationship.

I'm not sure that Papageorgiou is correct that BlackBerry will ship four million BB7s this quarter. This won't affect his EPS estimate, though, since he's expecting no contribution from these phones. If it is light, though, it would mean it would be unlikely the company could hit $4.1 billion for the quarter.

However, I agree with Papageorgiou much more than I disagree with him on this quarter. Some of the other sell-side reports on BlackBerry make bold predictions on device sales but have a difficult time explaining where they came up with that number and how it trickles through to lead to an EPS estimate.

Papageorgiou may be way "out of consensus" on his call for BlackBerry this quarter, but I expect him to be closer to the mark than anyone else.

At the time of publication the author was long BBRY.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Stock quotes in this article: BBRY, SNE, MSFT 

Eric Jackson is founder and Managing Member of Ironfire Capital and the general partner and investment manager of Ironfire Capital US Fund LP and Ironfire Capital International Fund, Ltd. In January 2007, Jackson started the world's first Internet-based campaign to increase shareholder value at Yahoo!, leading to a change in CEOs in 2007. He also spoke out in favor of Yahoo!'s accepting Microsoft's buyout offer in 2008. Global Proxy Watch named Jackson as one of its 10 "Stars" who positively influenced international corporate governance and shareowner value in 2007.

Prior to founding Ironfire Capital, Jackson was President and CEO of Jackson Leadership Systems, Inc., a leadership, strategy, and governance consulting firm. He completed his Ph.D. in the Management Department at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business in New York, with a specialization in Strategic Management and Corporate Governance, and holds a B.A. from McGill University.

He was previously Vice President of Strategy and Business Development at VoiceGenie Technologies, a software firm now owned by Alcatel-Lucent. In 2004, Jackson founded the Young Patrons' Circle at the Royal Ontario Museum in Toronto, which is now the second-largest social and philanthropic group of its kind in North America, raising $500,000 annually for the museum. You can follow Jackson on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ericjackson or @ericjackson.

You can contact Eric by emailing him at eric.jackson@thestreet.com.

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