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NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- About a year ago I warned investors to avoid gold and silver in these two articles, here and here.
My warnings were met with enthusiastic acclamation, praise and thanks. Here is a sample of the comments received:
John: "Is this guy for real????"Rafi Farber: "The market is a Zero Sum game. Smart money buys low and sells high. Dumb money buys high and sells low to compensate. This guy Robert Weinstein will be the dumb money on this trade. God bless him."Robertfwaxman: "Thanks, you are the epitome of contrarian indicators."Texas: "...Mr. Weinstein fails to discuss the macro economic reasons that led to , and will continue to push gold/silver prices higher. Analysts like Mr. Weinstein (which i submit are in a majority right now) seem to bash silver gold without due regard to the fundamentals..."
It's ok, I'm used to it. When you write a bearish article, you normally don't gain a lot of friends. But if you do your homework, you gain respect. I remain bearish on metals and believe gold, as shown by the
SPDR Gold Shares(GLD), will test $100 before $200. In other words, GLD hasn't reached the bottom yet.
I'm not nearly as bearish with silver, as shown by
iShares Silver Trust(SLV), though. Don't take it the wrong way, it's not a deal yet, but it may bottom out in 2013. The key takeaway with buying dips is that they generally fall further than they "should." The markets are based primarily on emotion in the short term and fundamentals over the long term.
Emotion is why we see blow-off tops and dead cat bounces. Logically and fundamentally, silver (as represented with SLV) isn't worth 85 cents an ounce less today than it was yesterday. Silver probably wasn't worth $45 an ounce either (I didn't think so or I wouldn't have written the bear thesis published).
Wait for SLV to fall below $15 before buying, and I strongly suggest selling put options as a conservative synthetic hedge for those who want exposure to the shiny metal. For example, if SLV is trading at $15, instead of buying the ETF, sell a $15 strike price put option with at least 60 days until expiration. Doing so will provide a timing buffer and lower your risk.