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Apple Can Grow to $500 in the Second Half of 2013

Stocks in this article: AAPL

Editor's note: Jim Cramer told viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show on Tuesday that Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Potash (POT) are two ugly ducklings set to become beautiful swans. Here's another stock with those same characteristics.

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Apple (AAPL) turned into an ugly duckling after the stock traded above $700 per share to $705.07 on Sept. 21, 2012. At that time ValuEngine had a buy rating on the stock. The stock was overvalued and tested ValuEngine's one-year price target at just above $700. The next day the stock was downgraded to hold.

It is difficult to explain why Apple shares spiraled lower. Perhaps investors began to realize that the post Steve Jobs Apple would lack the steady flow of innovative products that Apple lovers lined up to buy. It seems to me that the company began a transformation from the world's poster child of a growth and momentum into a huge company with steady earnings growth and a generator of dividends.

By Nov. 2, the stock was below its 200-day simple moving average, then at $590.33. Despite positive third and fourth quarter 2012 earnings investors were positioned to book profits on strength. Apple continued lower into 2013 as the winter and spring environment included speculation of new product innovations including the Apple TV. Without new product launches the stock continued lower in transition to a value stock from a momentum stock.

On March 4 I wrote Apple Joins Others Behind the Woodshed where I pointed out that the stock was down 39.0% from its September 2012 high. At this time the stock had been upgraded to buy, was 26.5% undervalued with a 12 month trailing price-to-earnings ratio of just 9.8. Apple's weekly chart profile was negative and extremely oversold.

On March 6 I wrote Apple Buy, Google Hold, Amazon Sell where I compared the three stocks known for their momentum. Apple had tested its annual value level, now a pivot at $421.05. I showed the weekly chart and the 200-week simple moving average then at $363.75. Apple began its tremendous momentum run from the 200-week SMA in March 2009 when that average was around $102.00.

On March 14 I wrote Apple Wins the Search for Value. In this post I used to drill down through 8,000 stocks to find a brand name company that was the best value stock. Apple turned out to be the only buy rated stock that was oversold on its weekly chart profile. The stock was 23.9% undervalued with a 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading of just 10.39 on a scale of 00.00 to 100.00, where a reading below 20.00 was oversold.

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