This Day On The Street
Continue to site right-arrow
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
Stocks Under $10 with 50-100% upside potential - 14 days FREE!

Domestic and Foreign Events Are Tying the Fed's Hands

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Despite apparent emerging strength in the U.S. economy, the Fed is faced with serious consequences, if it moves toward a reduction of policy ease. Those consequences include:

  • A potential violent market reaction;
  • the quashing of the nascent private sector animal spirits;
  • the short-term negative consequences of a stronger dollar on imports and exports; and
  • the long-term issues of the size and cost of the debt.

The Wealth Effect

The "wealth effect" has been studied for decades with the universal conclusion that its overall economic impact is marginal; i.e., the wealthy simply have a low marginal propensity to consume. Yet, this appears to be the only benefit of the massive QE programs, which -- as documented by two revered market pundits, David Rosenberg and Jeffrey Gundlach -- has a nearly 90% correlation with the equity markets.

In recent weeks, we saw the violent reactions in both equity and fixed-income markets to the mere concept of "tapering," which is not tightening, but simply less easing (a change in the 2nd derivative). Clearly, a move to lessen ease risks the small success that massive QE has had to date.

Deflation

Deflation is a worldwide issue, even among emerging industrial powers like the BRICS. China's economy, which has been the world's economic growth engine for the past half decade, appears to be slowing significantly, despite its official purported 7.5% growth rate. The underlying data tell the story, including depressed raw commodity prices, excess high seas shipping capacity, the value of the currencies of commodity-producing countries like Australia, and a falloff in exports from lower-cost producers like South Korea.

Except for Japan, in April, the IMF significantly lowered its growth forecasts for every industrial economy. Thus, any tightening move by the Fed would only exacerbate worldwide deflationary pressures.

Debt Costs

The high and rising cost of U.S. debt, much of which is financed by foreigners, makes abandonment of easy money highly risky for U.S. fiscal policy. The U.S. public is unaware that the true GAAP deficit has exceeded $5 trillion for the past five years. Instead, the $1 trillion cash-flow budget deficit is viewed as the issue. Nevertheless, as time passes, the already built-in additional $4 trillion per year of promises will become current obligations.

I have seen several estimates of the cost of that future debt in rising-interest-rate scenarios. None are pretty. The most recent from Jeffrey Gundlach of Doubleline estimated the cost of the debt and deficit at $2.5 trillion by 2017, if the 10-year rate were to rise gradually from its current 2.1% level to 6.0%. By then, Gundlach says, the debt itself will be $26 trillion. Such deficits and debt levels risk not only inflation, but the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency.

Conclusion

The consequences of rising U.S. interest rates are dire. They would exacerbate worldwide deflation, play havoc with the nascent U.S. economic recovery, reverse the limited positive impact of the wealth effect via U.S. equity markets and have dire consequences for the dollar and U.S. fiscal policy. Rising rates will inevitably occur, but don't count on them anytime soon.

This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.

Robert Barone (Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University) is a Principal of Universal Value Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!

Markets

DOW 18,053.71 +23.50 0.13%
S&P 500 2,088.77 +6.89 0.33%
NASDAQ 4,806.8590 +33.3870 0.70%

Brokerage Partners

Rates from Bankrate.com

  • Mortgage
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs