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Societe Generale Report on BlackBerry Makes No Sense

If SocGen is right and the company surprises with its Z10 sales in the quarter, the stock will unquestionably fly on the earnings, and the many shorts will be forced to quickly cover, adding some accelerant to the fire.

I think the Z10 numbers will surprise (along with early Q10 shipments). BlackBerry has been adept at figuring out ways to make its numbers look great in the last few earnings calls, and I would expect them to stuff as many new devices into the channel as they can -- figuring they're eventually going to sell them anyways.

Unlike SocGen, I don't think the BB7s will fall off a cliff -- although the sooner they go, the better.

To me, it looks like a really safe bet that BlackBerry will beat on the bottom line. I'm less sure on the top line.

We will see.

At the time of publication, Jackson was long BlackBerry.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Eric Jackson is founder and Managing Member of Ironfire Capital and the general partner and investment manager of Ironfire Capital US Fund LP and Ironfire Capital International Fund, Ltd. In January 2007, Jackson started the world's first Internet-based campaign to increase shareholder value at Yahoo!, leading to a change in CEOs in 2007. He also spoke out in favor of Yahoo!'s accepting Microsoft's buyout offer in 2008. Global Proxy Watch named Jackson as one of its 10 "Stars" who positively influenced international corporate governance and shareowner value in 2007.

Prior to founding Ironfire Capital, Jackson was President and CEO of Jackson Leadership Systems, Inc., a leadership, strategy, and governance consulting firm. He completed his Ph.D. in the Management Department at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business in New York, with a specialization in Strategic Management and Corporate Governance, and holds a B.A. from McGill University.

He was previously Vice President of Strategy and Business Development at VoiceGenie Technologies, a software firm now owned by Alcatel-Lucent. In 2004, Jackson founded the Young Patrons' Circle at the Royal Ontario Museum in Toronto, which is now the second-largest social and philanthropic group of its kind in North America, raising $500,000 annually for the museum. You can follow Jackson on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ericjackson or @ericjackson.

You can contact Eric by emailing him at eric.jackson@thestreet.com.
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