Third, we need to see some stabilization in China. Europe could really help here because they take so many Chinese exports. For that to happen the potential trade war between China and Europe over solar panel dumping needs to be nipped in the bud.
Fourth, we have to get a sign that all is not lost in retail land. We got some hope last night when Gap (GPS) reported a good month, which showed us that Ascena (ASNA), Vera Bradley (VRA) and Francesca's (FRAN), three huge disappointers, might actually be outliers. After all, Gap is a gigantic nationwide chain that has a real good handle on business that these three other companies simply don't have. We will hear from PVH (PVH) next week. This apparel company is in every major department store and it provided continued momentum with a good report.
Fifth, we need to see some stability in commodities to verify that things around the world are getting better, not worse. I rely on iron ore, copper, aluminum and most important, lumber as signposts of improvement or deceleration. All of those have been terrible performers of late -- except lumber, which just started advancing. That's a terrific sign but the others need to follow.
Last, we saw our leadership groups come back today: aerospace, transports, techs, banks and biotechs -- the latter being the most visible sign of a better market. If those continue to build on today's advance, we have a fighting chance to say that we've seen the bottom and that the worst case scenario's off the table.So those are six themes to watch for. Unfortunately, we need all six to go right if we are going to get back to where we were before the selloff began. But I would say four out of six would prove that the pivot we saw on Thursday was, indeed, a whoosh bottom. And that means, point blank, that the worst is over. At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Retail's News Just Isn't Good Enough Posted at 2:02 p.m. EDT on Thursday, June 6 What makes someone like me skittish about the stock market? First, I am a sector-by-sector, bottoms-up guy, meaning that I don't take much stock in various broad government numbers, except the employment number we get tomorrow, as that is very important for the market. I don't care all that much about the charts, but I respect what they say.
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