NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The "sell in May and walk away" scenario remains in play as a June swoon looms. To confirm the May 20/May 22 highs as a major stock market top, the weekly chart profiles for the five major averages must shift to negative technically.Negative weekly closes require that the Dow industrial average, S&P 500, Nasdaq, the Dow transportation average and Russell 2000 must have weekly closes below their five-week modified moving averages with declining momentum. My measure of momentum is a 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic where readings are on a scale of zero to 100. All major averages have been overbought with readings above 80. In sum, we need weekly closes below the five-week modified moving average with momentum declining below 80.
An important risk is the reversion to the mean which are the 200-day simple moving averages at 13,855 Dow Industrials, 1494.2 S&P 500, 3155 Nasdaq, 5608 Dow transports and 883.10 Russell 2000. Beware that all five major averages have crossed their 200-day SMA in every year of the new millennium except 2013 so far.