Back To The Futures: Is Gold Or Oil A Good Bet?
Gold falls from grace -- somewhat
Gold has enjoyed an epic run in recent years, rising by about 570 percent over 10 years before peaking in the summer of 2011. Gold prices then bounced around for a while, but over the past seven months they have pretty much gone straight down, recently dropping below the $1,400-per-ounce mark. This puts gold down about 25 percent from its peak.
Does this drop in prices make it a good time to get in? It's all a matter of perspective. You can look at the recent decline as an opportunity, or you can take a longer-term view and see that gold is still up by nearly 300 percent over the past decade. Whether you view the current price as cheap or expensive really depends on your time-frame, because the market demand for gold is so prone to speculation that it is difficult to come up with an objective valuation methodology.
One thing you can say about gold prices: They certainly behave like no other investment. If nothing else, that at least gives gold a modest amount of appeal as a diversification element.
Oil achieves new steadiness
Oil is also famous for its erratic price swings, but over the past year
it has been unusually stable, staying in a band of about $80 to $98 a barrel. So what about oil as an investment?
Like gold, the price of oil is unpredictable enough to give it some diversification benefit in a portfolio of other investments. In addition, oil prices are often a driving force behind inflation, so if you are looking for an inflation hedge, oil is worth considering. Just be advised that it is not a perfect hedge -- as important as oil is in terms of direct consumption and as a cost factor in other sectors of the economy, it is not the only thing that can cause inflation. In some scenarios, rising prices in one sector can actually push down prices in other sectors.
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