Kotowski estimates that distributable earnings for APO will total $3.01 a share in 2013, declining to $2.82 in 2014. Based on his estimates, APO's stock trades for 7.0 times enterprise value.
The analyst on Wednesday lowered his price target for APO to $32.50 from $34, but the new price target still represents potential upside of 44% for the shares.
For both companies, investors are concerned that there may be a slowdown in distributable carry and gains for investments made at huge discounts before 2010, "but since 2010 these two companies have deployed more than $27B that is likely to generate future carry," Kotowski wrote.
-- Written by Philip van Doorn in Jupiter, Fla.>Contact by Email. Follow @PhilipvanDoorn