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U.S. Stock Market Foreshadows Another Rally

NEW YORK ( -- Over the past couple of weeks investors and traders have been growing increasingly bearish on the U.S. stock market. While I also feel this rally is getting long in the tooth, there is no reason to exit long positions and start shorting.

My followers know I do not pick tops and I do not pick bottoms. There are more cons to that tactic and on several different levels (timing, volatility, emotions, lack of experience, addiction) than there are pros.

Keeping things simple, short and to the point here is my thinking for today and this week on the broad market. Remember, my analysis is 100% technically based using price, volume, cycles, volatility, momentum and sentiment. I try not to let any emotions, gut feel or bias flow into my projections. I say "try" because I am only human and at times when the market and emotions are flying high they still take control of me. (However, those times are few and far between.)

So let's get to the charts.

S&P 500 Index Trading Daily Chart -- SPY Exchange-Traded Fund

The S&P 500 index continues to hold up within its rising trend channel and the recent pullback is bullish. Remember, the trend is your friend and it can continue for very long periods of times ranging from days, weeks, and even months.

The U.S. Stock Market "Muscle" Indexes

The charts below show and explain my thinking. In short, we need these two indexes to be strong if we want to see another major leg higher in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), or to at least test the recent highs.

Tuesday, the market opened slightly higher and pushed up in the first 30 minutes with strong volume. Overall the market looks as though it needs a day to pause/pullback before taking another run higher.
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Chart of I:DJI
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