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Size Matters for Single-Family REITs, Analyst Says

Stocks in this article: BX CLNY ARPI SBY

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- An ability to scale up rapidly will be a key differentiator that will separate winners from the losers in the single-family rental business, according to FBR Capital analyst Steve Stelmach.

"Low cost of capital and scale -- not the transitory effects of regional rental yields, acquisition types, or maintenance expenses -- will be the differentiators for the space as this sector develops," he wrote in a report Monday.

The business of buying up single-family homes at distressed prices, fixing them up and converting them into rentals has attracted institutional investors in droves over the past year.

Now a number of them are lining up to raise money from the public. While Silver Bay (SBY) and recently listed American Residential Properties (ARPI) are the only public companies, others including Colony Capital's (CLNY) single-family arm and Oakland, California-based Waypoint Homes have filed to go public.

But the institutionalization of single-family rental business -- traditionally operated locally by mom-and-pop real estate investors -- is still in its infancy and remains an unproven business model.

While not everyone can be winners, larger REITs will have an advantage, according to a report published Monday by FBR.

"At the end of the day, we believe this sector will ultimately have only a handful of large competitors, as returns will compress as home prices grow, thus creating a much higher barrier to entry for hopeful entrants in just a few years," Stelmach wrote.

Right now, opportunity is ripe for acquisition of properties as "shadow inventory" -- loans in some stage of foreclosure process or seriously delinquent -- should provide a steady supply of homes over the next one to two years. Core Logic estimates shadow inventory at 2.2 million.

However, shadow inventory will "eventually dwindle" and the opportunity to buy homes at deep discounts will shrink. At that point, the industry will go through a consolidation and larger REITs with low cost of capital will likely benefit.

"The dwindling supply will, we believe, lead large REITs to look toward smaller competitors that are either finding it difficult to manage their current portfolios or looking to monetize the price gains they will have likely realized. We believe the larger REITs will be able to acquire these portfolios at an advantageous cost of capital and at prices that are still economically beneficial to shareholders, while also limiting the competition within the space," Stelmach wrote.

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