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TheStreet Open House

Precious Metals and Miners Start Bottoming Process

NEW YORK ( TheGoldAndOilGuy.com) -- Precious metals and their related mining stocks continue to underperform the broad market. This year's heavy volume breakdown below key support has many investors and traders spooked, creating to a steady stream of selling pressure for gold and silver bullion and mining stocks.

While the technical charts are telling me prices are trying to bottom, we must be willing to wait for price to provide low-risk entry points before getting involved. Precious metals are like any other investment in respect to trading and investing in them. There are times when you should be long, times to be in cash and times to be short (benefit from falling prices). Right now and for the last 12 months when looking at precious metals, cash has been king.

Since 2011, when gold and silver started to correct, the best position has been to move to cash or to sell/write options until the next trend resumes. This is something I have been doing with my trading partner who focuses solely on options trading, who closed three winning positions last week for big gains.

In 2008 we had a similar breakdown in price washing the market clean of investors who were long precious metals. If you compare the last two breakdowns they look very similar. If price holds true then we will see higher prices unfold at the end of 2013.

The key here is for the price to move and hold above the major resistance line. A breakout would trigger a rally in gold to $2,600 to $3,500 per ounce. With that being said, gold and silver may be starting a bear market.

Depending what the price does when the major resistance zone is touched, my outlook may change from bullish to bearish. Remember, no one can predict the market with 100% accuracy and each day, week and month that passes changes the outlook going forward.

The chart below is one I drew up on May 3. I was going to get a fresh chart and put my analysis on it but, to be honest, my price forecast/analysis has been spot on thus far and there is no need to update.

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