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Dicker: Natural Gas Is Going to $5

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- I reiterated my call of $5 natural gas by the fourth quarter of this year when I spoke today with Jim Cramer. I believe the traders tried to get in a bit early to the natural gas cycle and were caught and that's why we've seen prices again moderate to under $4/mcf.

But I see that as an opportunity -- the fundamentals of natural gas cannot be denied forever and shut-ins and a dropping rig count for natural gas has pushed the storage numbers finally below the five-year average.

Further, the run of conference calls from the supermajors were uniform in that a $4 price for natural gas would not inspire them to ramp up their drilling for further supply. It will take many quarters of higher natural gas prices to encourage Big Oil to recommit to natural gas production.

That should translate to a higher price, and I have begun to accumulate a futures position in natural gas. But for investors, there are some heavily levered stocks that can work as well.

One of the most levered is Ultra Petroleum (UPL - Get Report), and the chart for Ultra finally begins to look positive after being a disastrous stock to own for the last three years. Other ideas in natural gas I like include Encana (ECA - Get Report) and EQT Corp. (EQT - Get Report).

I talk more about my $5 natural gas call with Jim in the video above.

At the time of publication the author had a position in UPL.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Dan Dicker has been a floor trader at the New York Mercantile Exchange with more than 25 years of oil trading experience. He is a licensed commodities trade adviser.

Dan is currently President of MercBloc LLC, a wealth management firm and is the author of "Oil's Endless Bid," published in March of 2011 by John Wiley and Sons.

Dan Dicker has appeared as an energy analyst since 2002 with all the major financial news networks. He has lent his expertise in hundreds of live radio and television broadcasts on CNBC, Bloomberg US and UK and CNNfn.

Dan obtained a bachelor of arts degree from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 1982.

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ECA $7.66 0.39%
EQT $70.09 0.04%
SWN $13.43 5.10%
UPL $0.31 -24.00%
AAPL $93.75 -1.10%


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