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TheStreet Open House

Homebuilders' Downgrades Continue

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The major equity averages continued to set new all time highs this week, with the Nasdaq setting a new multi-year high. Stock market strength is causing higher overbought technical momentum readings on weekly charts.

Higher stock prices and a higher 30-year Treasury bond yield intensified the ValuEngine valuation warning as 70.8% of all stocks were overvalued on Wednesday. This morning this reading slipped to 69.9% as the bond yield moved slightly lower. The bottom line is that stocks are more overvalued and more overbought than they were a week ago, but still without confirming a market top.

This continued market dynamic is similar to 1999/2000 when there were worries about how the clocks around the world would tick going into the first day of the new. Tech spending to prevent problems and an easy monetary policy by the Federal Reserve was fueling a parabolic bubble in the tech heavy Nasdaq. When the Nasdaq moved above 5000 in March 2000 I told investors to reduce holdings in Nasdaq stocks by 50% saying that the Nasdaq would decline to 3500 then 3000 before the end of the year.

Today the Nasdaq is back within the 3000 to 3500 cone of the March 2000 tech bubble, and this time it's the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve via QE3 and QE4. The upside for the Nasdaq is to my semiannual risky level at 3583, only 3.4% higher than Thursday's close. This week, some Fed officials suggested that this policy should be unwound.

This week's data included weaker than expected regional manufacturing. Industrial production was below expectations. On Thursday jobless claims were back above the 350,000 recessionary threshold, and housing starts were much weaker than expected. This suggests that the QEs are not working.

Here are some stock specific concerns as the equities bubbles inflate:

When Google (GOOG) ($903.87) popped above $900 on Wednesday and traded as high as $919.97 on Thursday pushing the stock above ValuEngine's one-year price target at $912.09. In my opinion additional strength is merely inflating a stock specific bubble. Google is 9.3% overvalued and my semiannual pivot is $854.04.


When Apple (AAPL) traded above $700 back on Sept. 21, it too traded slightly above the ValuEngine one-year price target and was downgraded to hold from buy. If you are trading Google consider using a stop loss to minimize a loss or lock in a gain.

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