NEW YORK ( ETF Expert) -- One of the most prominent names in perma-bear predicting, Nouriel Roubini, just advised that you buy stocks for a period of about two years. At that time, the professor expects a global economic depression to rock the world markets.
There's a great deal of irony in hearing "Dr. Doom" discuss riding a stock wave higher through 2014. For one thing, his revelation is coming to light at all-time record highs for U.S. equities. And he recommends
allocating cash to the broader market at the start of May?
Secondly, Roubini should be more famous for his inaccurate calls than the one that the media claim that he got right. According to many writers, Roubini predicted the 2008 collapse. Yet, his bearish prognostications occurred throughout the 2004-2007 period in which holding cash or short-selling assets would have harmed one's portfolio.
Perhaps more devastating, a follower of Roubini would have suffered mightily in the four-plus years since March of 2009. Now "Dr. Doom" essentially acknowledges (albeit inadvertently) that the central banks can inflate assets better than he can predict their price direction?
Roubini may deserve his guru status for his famous 2008 "call." Then again, he was three to four years early on the reaction of market-based securities to the real estate-based recession.
If market-based investments are beaten to a pulp in March of 2015, as he now contends, it will constitute circumstances where Roubini would be six years premature. Sadly, the media would certainly trot the well-educated economist out for an encore.
In essence, the media are at fault for propping up personalities. The public has a need for heroes and the media fill the void. However, the truth about what the markets may or may not do is far less stimulating; that is, nobody has any idea what will occur or when it will happen.
It follows that an investor needs to look for opportunity where reasonable assumptions fuel well-reasoned expectations of gain. Simultaneously, he/she must
maintain an exit plan
for avoiding the bulk of a disastrous turn of events. With or without Nouriel Roubini, the future always has a period of reckoning.