With so much time passing since the original January product launch and not much to show so far, these critics feel the end is near for BlackBerry. However, I think the critics are forgetting about the importance of the Q10.
The Q10 has only come out in the U.K. so far and -- as of Wednesday -- Canada. Just like we saw when the Z10 was released, there are some intermittent reports of "success" so far on a store-by-store basis. We keep hearing about "sellouts" without any idea of how many phones each of those stores received in the first place.
However, it would be foolish to underestimate how many executives -- just in North America alone -- are still out there with their 5-year-old clunky BlackBerrys just waiting to upgrade to the Q10. A lot of these people are being supplied with BlackBerrys by their CIOs. Therefore, don't expect to see them in line-ups at
in Canada this weekend.
The point is that Q10 will inspire the biggest number of upgrades from the existing subscriber base over the next couple of months (especially as the Q10 comes to the U.S. at the end of this month).
Because there's not as much attention on BlackBerry the stock today as there was back in January at the keynote launch, I would expect BlackBerry's stock to do well over the next couple of weeks as we hear more and more about how the Q10 launch is going.
You should also watch out for the possibility of some kind of strategic investment in BlackBerry by some big brother type or some kind of "strategic licensing" deal. My suspicion is that CEO Thorsten Heins wanted to get the launches of both the Z10 and Q10 out of the way before doing those kinds of deals, in order to give himself the most leverage in those discussions.
In any case, don't forget about BlackBerry. We could be about to hear a slew of good news, strategic deals and some positive earnings in the June report. If true, that will give the shorts a bad case of heartburn.
At the time of publication, the author was long BBRY
This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.