Last fall, everyone had given up on BlackBerry after it dropped to $6 a share. Even when it made a move from $6 to $9 in a few short weeks, people still ridiculed the stock.
It wasn't until the stock went on a run from $9 to $18 that people really sat up and took notice.
That remarkable run was in the lead-up to the January release of the two new BlackBerry phones: the Z10 and the Q10, the all-touch and keyboard phones, respectively.It's fair to say that most people who were excited by the new phones were eager for the keyboard version. That's the one that people have clung on to their old BlackBerrys for. There are still more than 70 million BlackBerry subscribers out there around the world, after all. However, since the initial launch in January, BlackBerry's stock has been very hard to trade. First, it dropped swiftly before the January keynote was even over. It's never seen $18 again. In fact, it briefly got down to $12 in the weeks after that keynote.
There have been several disappointments since the initial product unveil. First, people scratched their heads over why there would be such a delay until the new phones shipped. Then, people wondered why the first phones to ship were going to be the all-touch phones. The all-keyboard phone -- the Q10 -- was not going to start shipping until May. The initial buzz about sales of the new Z10 phones came and went. There hasn't seemed to be a universal sense that BlackBerry is going to be a runaway success. And this has just fed into the skeptics of the stock. When a third of a stock's float is held short, it's hard to imagine one with more skeptics. My view is that most BlackBerry critics are of the opinion that this is a stock that had its fun going from $6 to $18 but that was just a mirage before reality sets in and this stock goes back to becoming a Palm and running out of cash. They are just waiting for the fall from grace.