Sell In May? No. Hedge Once Again
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- While writing an article about stock buys near 52-week highs, I noticed many of the stocks I reviewed are overbought based on technical analysis. As a result, they were left on the cutting room floor.
I won't include stocks when the chart pattern appears overbought. One company that didn't make the cut was Chimera Investment Corporation (CIM). In the case of Chimera, I'm not convinced it should be shorted. But if you own it, you may want to take some of your gains off the table.
If Chimera shares retrace you can always buy them back and reduce your cost basis. Don't get carried away, though. Unless you're in the market full time, market timing probably isn't an exercise in which you want to engage.
After reviewing more than a few stocks with an overbought status, I decided to take a closer look at the overall market and especially the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY).On Monday, the SPY's chart formed a bearish indicator used by market timers. My daily SPY chart has a "13" above Monday's price bar. The 13 stands for a completed DeMark Sequential indicator on the bar. The indicator alone is not enough to start a trade for me; however, the SPY is also breaking through support on the weekly chart. Combined, the two indications build a compelling case for shorting the market. In a normal, not-manipulated-by-the-government market, I wouldn't hesitate to call this a short. Today is the last day of April, and the adage of "Sell in May and go away" is in my thoughts, too.
Last year, I didn't believe selling In May was the right call. I wrote about last May in "Don't Sell -- Hedge In May and Go Away", and that was the right call. Investors who sold calls against their shares earned option premium while lowering their risk, all without actually selling shares. This year is slightly different. This year we conjoin "The Affordable Care Act" (ACA), better known as "Obamacare," to the mix of market movers. We have three principal drivers in the market. The first is obviously the government with quantitative easing. Interest rates are artificially below the fair market value stimulating housing in particular and the overall economy in general.
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