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It's Spring on Wall Street, But Winter May Be Near for Amazon

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Back before we worried about Y2K, Amazon.com's (AMZN) earnings releases followed a strict narrative. Amazon reports dismal earnings with the commitment to increase future revenue. Greater revenue will equal greater profits for shareholders if they are patient.

This broken record plays ad nauseum, and each quarter shareholders buy into the greater fool theory because, after all, the price only increases so it must continue to rise.

Other companies don't get a free pass earnings season after earnings season.

Remember when Apple (AAPL) reported record revenue and earnings last quarter? What direction did Apple's stock move after reporting? It went down. Having the best margins in the space wasn't enough, there was fear that margins may compress and that's all it took for a market that was searching for the slightest imperfection.

Apple shares sold off to the level that I didn't believe earnings would have a significant impact. You can read about my thoughts and bullish bias on Apple in the article "Should Apple Investors Even Care About Earnings?"

Contrary to the rest of the relatively sane investment universe, in the previous report before Thursday, Amazon posted a loss, without a clear path to profitability and investors raced each other to buy more stock. Amazon is the perfect example of why I often say a company's value is based on its income statement and balance sheet while a stock is valued from emotion.

After Amazon reported earnings on Thursday, the stock again appeared to enter the Twilight Zone. Starting from a close near $275, the shares hesitated and even weakened momentarily before bursting higher. The speed of the share price moving higher could make the Bellagio fountains envious.


And why shouldn't Amazon's shares move higher? After all, every investor knows the shares always increase after earnings (eyes rolling). Besides, trailing 12-month operating cash flow increased 39%, revenue grew 22%, media revenue up 7%, and electronics and general merchandise (EGM) revenue increased 28%. At first glance, the Seattle, Wash., online book peddler is crushing many notable metrics.

It's only after you dig deeper that you locate the cracks in the armor.

Unlike operating cash flow, the more closely observed free cash flow decreased a stomach-turning 85%. You practically need a micron microscope to find the 1% return on invested capital. Similarly, Amazon's previously pathetic 28 cents of net income fell to 18 cents -- not much of a beat when viewed in that light.

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