The haves wouldn't have it. The have-nots would be showered with money. The major averages might not even be able to detect the shift underneath, but that shift would be tectonic in nature. You would hear lots of wrong people saying wrong things about how the market has to go down now that the Fed is "done" -- just as they've said, in the past, that the market will have to go down because one day the Fed would be done. But those are the same knuckleheads who have thought that stocks are "risk-on" and bonds are "risk-off," and totally miss what this business is about, but sound really smart on television. Maybe they will be revealed as having no clothes after all. But, then again, I can't be on air or awake long enough to do the job by myself, and the others who are cowed by this nonsense are going to have to kick in.
But the main thing that would happen in this scenario is that you'll wish that you'd bought the shares of pretty much everything that is currently within 10% of its new low, and that you'd sold everything that is now within 5% of its new high.
In short, you will have had to do what we've started seeing Wednesday: Sell the winners and buy the losers.
There's only one problem with this scenario. We are in the hands of the policymakers and the politicians, and it just seems like a horrible bet to think the politicians and policymakers in Europe, China and the U.S. doing things right. The idea that the same people who have gotten it wrong are suddenly going to get it right seems just ludicrous.Now, it's not a total impossibility. Six years ago our current Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, and his closest advisers thought nothing was going to go wrong with this economy, and they tightened rates as the other branches of the federal government ignored the chicanery and greed that was ripping through our banking system. That put the housing crisis on a collision course with the rest of the economy, and we are still paying the price. Remember that, when that collision took place, the U.S. economy was at 5.5% unemployment, in large part because of the terrific housing market -- although the stooges I listen to daily rarely credit housing with that important a role.
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