Editor's Note: This article was originally published on Real Money on April 25. To see Jim Cramer's latest commentary as it's published, sign up for a free trial of Real Money.
NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Is there such a thing as too much protection? Maybe, at a certain point, you'll want to say, "You know what? I want a ton more risk."
I mean, what happens if something actually gets better? What happens if the policymakers in Europe decide that growth is better than austerity, and they'll use the low bond rates to raise money, refinance debt and put people to work?
What happens in the U.S. if President Obama decides to harness the energy hand he has been given, and actually says that we are going to bring industry back? What if he decides that, for now, we're going to make the air cleaner and wipe out OPEC, instead of focusing on plug-in cars and solar energy?What happens if Europe comes back and China can get back to its exporting ways? What if, at the same time, China figures out how to actually follow through with its plan of bringing 400 million people to the cities? What happens if China decides it is going to repatriate the bond money it has overseas in order to bail out all of the banks that are overleveraged, and basically start all over again, as the U.S. did in 1990 with the savings-and-loan crisis? What happens if commonsense prevails and the politicians everywhere decide to emphasize a growth agenda until unemployment goes down and jobs are plentiful? The first thing that would happen is that everyone would suddenly be in the so-called "wrong" stocks. The classic growth stocks in the market would be whacked, along with the biotechs that have gotten to such lofty levels; the retailers with the double-digit-plus same-store sales; the concept stocks with no earnings; and the 3%-plus dividend yielders. We would recognize that the Federal Reserve doesn't need to keep interest rates down, so bond competition would step in. The rotation out of Clorox (CL) and Procter & Gamble (PG) and into Caterpillar (CAT) and Terex (TEX) and Dow Chemical (DOW) would be mind-numbing. The money flowing out of the utilities stocks and the telecoms would stagger you. You'd be blown away by the money that would go into the prosaic techs -- the stocks like Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) and Texas Instruments (TXN) -- as well as the blocking-and-tackling banks such as Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
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