CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (
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multiple sclerosis pill Tecfidera is off to a blazing commercial launch.
Check out the green, nearly vertical line, in the graph above. It represents one week of Tecfidera scripts, per IMS Health. As ISI Group analyst Mark Schoenebaum points out, Biogen booked as many Tecfidera scripts in one week as
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did with Gilenya after three months.
Biogen shares are up 4% to $210.73 in early trading.
Yes, we're only looking at a single week of Tecfidera scripts, so it's way too early to reach any definitive conclusions. Still, pretty cool if you're Biogen or one of its shareholders.
"Any way you look at it, BG-12 appears to be doing very well in its inaugural week," writes Schoenebaum in an email to clients Monday morning, referring to Tecfidera's scientific name. Schoenebaum also created and sent out the graph.
Biogen reports first-quarter financial results on Thursday morning, with current consensus at earnins of $1.61 per share on total revenue of $1.42 billion. Tecfidera was approved at the end of March, so sales won't factor much into first-quarter results. Still, investors will definitely want to hear from Biogen management about the early weeks of the launch.
For the year, Biogen is expected to earn $7.79 per share on total revenue of $6.43 billion. Included in the consensus revenue estimate is approximately $240 million in Tecfidera sales.
If that slope of that green line in the graph above remains vertical, investors are under-estimating Tecfidera sales -- and Biogen earnings.
-- Reported by Adam Feuerstein in Boston.