NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- I've got to admit that Apple (AAPL) is starting to look somewhat interesting to this deep value investor. I'm not sure we are quite there yet, but it appears as though the growth crowd may be throwing in the towel. Many loved the stock at $700, at $600, and again at $500, but not so much at $400 and below.
That's one of the fascinating aspects of the markets and investor psychology; they'll love you until they don't, warranted or not. Is the April 2013 $400 Apple materially different than the September 2012 $700 Apple? Has the story really changed that much? Or is it the classic oscillation between greed and fear; where investors push stocks higher than is deserved on the upside, then push them lower on the downside?
I suspect part of the problem is Apple overexposure. Sure, there are reports of audio-chip gluts suggesting slower than expected demand for iPhones and iPads, profit growth is slowing, and some are calling for Tim Cook's head. However it's not as if the company's multiples were anywhere near ridiculous levels, even at $700. At that point shares were trading for around 16 times trailing earnings. While that may be a bit pricy to a cheapskate like me, it's not a crazy multiple, especially for a company that still has profit margins in the mid 20% range.
Now Apple is trading at 9 times trailing earnings, and if you consider that to be hindsight, consensus estimates for 2014 put the forward P/E at less than 8. If you don't trust the consensus, ignore it; use the lowest estimate for 2014 (EPS $40) and you still have a forward P/E just under 10.
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