Cramer: So Much for Supply and Demand
But not now. Not with the papers reading the way they are. So the financial buyers are dumping Brent at the exact same time that the actual producers in the United States are getting their product to the world market instead of having it landlocked in the Midwest.
The result? The world price is coming down. Now, of course, unlike all of the other markets there is a swing producer here in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis may not know about all of the oil discovered here or can't game it because we do not have a government with an energy policy, so you don't know what will be used -- Canada tar sands -- and what will forever be locked into the ground because of the lowered price.
But they know Iraq is starting to pump much more than it used to and that Libya is back on line. They know that the big Nigeria-to-U.S. oil trade isn't slowing. Neither is the Algeria trade. So it is possible that they cut back and make the market tight again. Remember the tug of war there. They must keep the price tight enough to maximize profit without encouraging more drilling or conservation.
If they pull back then the financial buyers have nothing to fear.But if they don't, then oil will be in the same free fall that all of the other commodities that have been propped up by the China marginal buyer trade. So, the financial buyers are being margined out, globally, or they are giving up on the trade and what you are seeing is an unprecedented rollback in prices on everything raw. Oh, one more thing. Don't forget that it is good for all but a handful of companies that actually produce iron, aluminum, nickel, copper, oil and the like. It's just not good enough right now for people to realize it. Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, has no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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