Cramer: So Much for Supply and Demand
That's been the case for several years now.
Unfortunately, as we read in the papers, the Chinese economy is downshifting. So now you have this financial glut where you know your marginal buyer is going away and the possibility of rates going up (end of Federal Reserve pumping) is upon us.
So what do you do? You unleash the aluminum on the market and close down the warehouse.
I don't think copper is any different. Hedge funds bought copper to market up and sell it to China. Pension funds put commodities in the allocation menu and bought copper, perhaps the physical but also through the copper ETF.Again, you read the papers, you think OK, that allocation is going to get killed, dump it. You can even make the same case with gold. The Chinese economy is slowing and the nominal buyers -- the great but now struggling middle-class -- aren't buying. At the same time gold failed to spike at the time of Cyprus, so when the heck would it spike? Might as well sell that too, before you lose money on it. I think the latter, by the way, is crucial to the thinking of all the financial minds here. "This trade hasn't made us money and it is about to cost us money" would be the way I would look at it. The last glutted market? Oil. Here, again, giant financial buyers have controlled the market, making it tighter than it should. But unlike all of the other markets, there have been breathtaking discoveries of oil that have distorted world flows and that has caused the price to actually come to make sense. Think about it. With economic activity actually down, double digits in many of the fuel using industries in Europe, did it make any sense for Brent to be more than $100, especially after the zeal with which they approach their hatred of renewables? Come on, does that make any sense at all? Yes, if you think China is reaccelerating and not conserving. Yes, you would want to hoard it.
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