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Don't Ignore Risk to 200-Day Moving Averages

Constellation Brands (STZ) ($49.42 vs. $47.84 on April 8) beat EPS estimates by two cents earning 47 cents a share. This hold-rated stock held my monthly pivot at $48.19, then set a new multi-year high at $49.54.

Family Dollar (FDO) ($59.78 vs. $59.40 on April 8) missed EPS estimates by a penny, earning $1.21 a share. This buy-rated stock traded between $58.27 and $60.90 on Wednesday around my monthly pivot at $59.00.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) ($64.00 vs. $63.76 on April 8) matched EPS estimates, earning $1.68 a share. This buy-rated stock opened higher on Thursday trading up to $68.30 then faded to a day's low at $63.69 versus my semiannual pivot at $64.14.

JB Hunt Transport (JBHT) ($74.22 vs. $73.40 on April 8) missed EPS estimates by three cents after the close on Thursday, earning 61 cents a share. This sell-rated stock slumped to $72.05 in after hours trading between my monthly value level at $71.26 and weekly pivot at $73.61.

On Tuesday, I wrote Rating the Three Consumer Sectors and profiled seven buy rated retail-wholesale stocks. I gave this sector an overweight rating and provided buy-and-trade strategies for these names: (each had tradable short term upside.)

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) ($19.91 vs. $19.37 on April 9) traded higher testing its 50-day SMA at $20.05 on Thursday.

Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) ($47.96 vs. $46.70 on April 9) traded higher to $48.92 but closed below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $48.15 and $49.23.

Foot Locker (FL) ($34.06 vs. $33.25 on April 9) traded higher ending Thursday above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $33.72 and $33.88 after a day's high at $34.60.

PetSmart (PETM) ($65.99 vs. $63.43 on April 9) traded higher to $67.08 on Thursday versus my monthly risky level at $67.23.

Tech Data (TECD) ($45.25 vs. $45.17 on April 9) traded up to $46.06 on Wednesday, then down to $44.25 on Thursday staying above its monthly value level at $43.90 and influenced by its weekly pivot at $45.85.

Vera Bradley (VRA) ($22.36 vs. $22.38 on April 9) stayed above its Jan 14 low at $22.00 without much volatility one way or the other.

Whole Foods Market (WFM) ($87.42 vs. $83.74 on April 9) traded up towards its 50-day SMA at $87.91.

On Wednesday, I wrote Time to Double-Dip Apple Shares as the stock continued to hold my annual pivot at $421.05 and traded as high as $437.99.

Google (GOOG) ($790.39) rebounded to $793.10 but stayed below its 50-day SMA at $798.71.

Amazon (AMZN) ($269.85) traded higher to $270.97 on Thursday.

Before the open on Thursday we learned that the International Data Corporation (IDC) reported that global PC shipments fell by 13.9% in the first quarter citing sluggish demand for Microsoft's Windows 8 software. This implied improved demand for tablets such as Amazon's Kindle Fire.

AMZN shares moved above my weekly pivot at $264.15 on Thursday but stayed well below my quarterly risky level at $278.28.

At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.
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