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PharmaPoint: Osteoporosis - US Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022
GlobalData has released its new Country report, "PharmaPoint: Osteoporosis - US Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022". Despite its maturity, the osteoporosis market is expected to undergo substantial change between 2012 and 2022. Most importantly, the 'gold-standard' bisphosphonates will lose patent protection by end-of-year 2013, flooding the marketplace with less expensive generic versions of these physician-preferred medications. Additionally, Eli Lilly's blockbuster Evista, the only available SERM in the US, will lose patent protection in 2014, flooding the market with yet more affordable generic options. Also during the forecast period covered by this report, osteoporosis drug development research will lead to the launches of a wave of novel anabolic drugs with greater efficacy and safety, causing a major market shift away from anti-resorptive drugs. The number of companies vying for patient share will shrink by as much as 50%, as established players exit the market or acquire smaller players. Lastly, the aging of the population in developed markets will result in a larger patient pool.
These changes in the osteoporosis market will be reflected in the slow growth during the forecast period, with the market growing from
$6 billion to $8 billion in
2011 USD at a CAGR of 3%.
The large dip in sales caused by these expiries is offset by six pipeline product launches over the forecast period, with three of these being potential blockbuster drugs. This next generation of drugs typically consists of biologics and will be higher priced than the drugs losing patent protection in the first half of the forecast period.