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Blockbuster Expectations Don't Always Translate To Market Reality

LONDON and BOSTON, April 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --

EP Vantage Analyzes Accuracy of Analyst Sales Estimates for Blockbuster and Near-Blockbuster Launches

Pharma industry observers widely expect Biogen Idec's new multiple sclerosis therapy Tecfidera to reach mega-blockbuster status. However, EP Vantage®, EvaluatePharma®'s award-winning editorial team cautions that forecasting revenue for an unlaunched drug isn't always easy. A five-year review of EvaluatePharma's consensus forecasts of analyst predictions for blockbuster or near-blockbuster drug launches found that new products with the biggest hopes often disappoint, while others have vastly outperformed low expectations.

The report, " The Industry's Brightest Hopes: Where Are They Now ?" uncovers some remarkable misses prompted by a sea change in treatment, reimbursement issues, safety concerns and heightened competition. While analysts' forecasts don't always ring true on performance, EP Vantage found that forecasts have also been spot on and in some cases performances even exceeded initial estimates.

"Evaluating the accuracy of consensus forecasts is particularly pertinent given the recent US approval of Tecfidera, with consensus data suggesting that this drug's sales could reach $3.7 billion within five years. Many factors can influence the success of a drug and while forecasts have been proven to ring true in many cases, our analysis shows just how far off they can be," commented Jacob Plieth, author of the EP Vantage report.

As the first company to provide consensus forecasts on global drug sales, EvaluatePharma takes the unweighted average of up to six equity research forecasts to provide reliable consensus estimates for the pharma and biotech industries to 2018. By taking an average, the impact of outlying forecasts is mitigated.

For a look at which of 2013's launches will be the next blockbusters, read the analysis here.

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