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TheStreet Open House

Apple Back in a Wedge

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- I was watching a YouTube video earlier, where Oscar Carboni, the creator of Live With Oscar, the purveyor of technical analysis, the man who declares fundamentals appears first in charts, the man whose prolific videos and brash personality have won him a regular guest seat on Fox with Neil Cavuto, the pit-floor-suited man who made famous the trader's mantra, "Stops are in, emotions are out," that he should be "committed to the psycho ward," because his proprietary OMNI Indicator was wrong again, undoubtedly wiping out millions of dollars from his legion of followers' trading accounts.

Oscar should be given props. He's a great ambassador for the art of technical analysis, as he assumes responsibility for his bad calls, and he professes good trading habits, like setting stops before executing a trade. I have no problem with the message of discipline he portrays, and the obligatory warning he gives that trading is risky and you could lose everything.

What I do have a problem with is his evangelistic preaching of technical analysis dogma, that it is the best way to put your money at risk in the futures and stock markets. I have a problem because he mesmerizes naive traders, just like those bible-belt preachers, into believing his 31 years as a trader-analyst will rub off on you, especially if you follow him to Las Vegas and take his $6,000 course.

And while Oscar's application of technical analysis is "technically" accurate and sound, and his rules and Oscarisms like, "Double Tops Bring Market Drops," are effective teaching techniques, I am concerned his videos never mention risk and money management. I'm concerned that hundreds, maybe thousands of people will be led by this YouTube Pied Piper to fiscal disaster.

So, what does this have to do with Apple (AAPL) and descending wedges? Well, I'm about to inflict upon you my own version of technical analysis, something I have been doing for decades, just like Oscar, but with the following caveat.

The first word in this art, and it is an intuitive art, not a science; the first word is technical. "Technical" implies something scientific, something that has endured the rigor of scientific methods and principles. But the fact is, technical analysis is not a science, it is more of an artful guess. To the extent that there is some correlation to drawing lines and mapping mob behavior, it has some practical use for visualizing patterns that may or may not repeat. But when put to the scrutiny of statistical analysis, the rules of technical analysis turn out to be not much better than a coin flip at determining the future direction of price.

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