During the heady days of the dotcom bubble it seemed a new stock market genius was born every minute. I remember meeting a bright-eyed young man, in his early twenties, excitedly telling me about how he was now a writer for a popular stock market investing site and how internet stocks were going to make everyone rich. “Worldcom is going to own the world” he told me, gushing with youthful enthusiasm.
For the decade ending January 2000, the market had made a parabolic move skyward. My chance meeting with the Worldcom wizard marked the top of the market almost to the day. Over the following two years the market fell some 40% from its high. It wiped out a lot of people. Worldcom filed for bankruptcy July, 2002.
I’m reminded of this because it seems the genii are back.
Mila Kunis recently told CNBC “I've just started investing in stocks…I've been pushed kind of forward to take chances.” Then there’s Genna Salinas (who looks a bit like Mila Kunis), a sixteen-year-old stock picker who was recently interviewed on Bloomberg. Genna advocates buying Google (GOOG).
The emergence of the genii is one more indicator the market is getting frothy and may be close to a top, in my opinion. When the new kids on the block start rushing in, I believe it could be time to edge closer to the exits. But what of market lows? Is there a celebrity sighting that could be used to indicate a good time to buy?
One well-known figure to beware of after stock market losses is none other than Santa Claus. In 1984, a doctor outside of Pittsburgh, after incurring stock market losses, dressed up as Santa Claus and kidnapped his broker for twelve days during which time Santa zapped the broker’s sensitive body parts with an electric instrument resembling a cattle prod.
I believe Santa was a good buy signal in 1984, and the Worldcom wizard was a good sell signal in January 2000. Now we have Mila Kunis and Genna Salinas. When the risk part of risk/reward apparently gets forgotten by the market’s eager newcomers, I think it may be wise to ask yourself Clint Eastwood’s famous Dirty Harry question: “Do you feel lucky?”
Covestor Ltd. is a registered investment advisor. Covestor licenses investment strategies from its Model Managers to establish investment models. The commentary here is provided as general and impersonal information and should not be construed as recommendations or advice. Information from Model Managers and third-party sources deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Transaction histories for Covestor models available upon request. Additional important disclosures available at http://site.covestor.com/help/disclosures. For information about Covestor and its services, go to http://covestor.com or contact Covestor Client Services at (866) 825-3005, x703.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV