April 5, 2013
continues to defy the United Nations and openly threaten
the United States
. But despite the escalating rhetoric it remains impossible to predict how this crisis will pan out, says defence and security expert Dr
James Jay Carafano
Dr Carafano, the
-based Heritage Foundation's vice president for foreign and defence policy studies tells
that limited intelligence means it is hard to determine how the crisis will develop.
The most we can see is through satellite imagery, or through statements that the North Koreans make
," adding that the North Koreans
know this, so they manipulate what we can see in the air and what they publically say to try to poke us
Analysts have argued that
diplomatic weight is key to reining in
, and that
is fast losing patience with the rogue state's actions. However, this may not be the case. "
One of the great myths is that somehow the Chinese can control North Korea
," he says.
The Chinese are interested in an independent
that they think is useful for their geopolitical view of the world. But they can
, and they don
, on the other hand has sent very strong signals that they will respond if
commits a violent attack on their country. "
So there is the potential for escalation here,
" he adds.
On the other hand, Dr Carafano does not believe that the US flying B2 stealth bombers over
, and sending missile defence systems and radars into the region is a provocative act.
I think it does send a very strong signal that the North Koreans risk escalation, and I think that
s more likely to reduce the potential for armed engagement than increase the possibility of conflict
," he says.
However, he says, the fact remains that anyone who thinks they can predict where this is going is guessing.