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Will Alcoa's Aluminum Shine for Investors?

Kleinfeld's confidence was manifested in the company's outlook. Alcoa anticipated 7% growth in aluminum demand for 2013. While this was a 1% increase above 2012 guidance, the company also said that China is expected to account for roughly 50% of that growth.

The company's going to need it, especially since analysts have trimmed estimates due to slumping aluminum prices, which have fallen by 10 cents per pound over the past month. However, management has remained positive and Alcoa continues to speak favorably about the automotive and aerospace industries, where companies such as Ford (F) and Boeing (BA) have started to migrate towards using aluminum in their vehicles and jets.

Management has also projected significant improvements in other segments, including gas turbine markets and food packaging. Likewise, there are also plenty of growth opportunities in areas such as appliances, where names such as General Electric (GE) might become a significant consumer of aluminum.

All of this means the company needs more time to execute. For now, the stock looks incredibly cheap. But as I've said before, unless aluminum prices recover, we may be repeating this theme for the next several quarters. Alcoa today has considerable amount of value, but it requires a lot of patience for that value to be realized.

At the time of publication, the author held no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

Richard Saintvilus is a private investor with an information technology and engineering background and the founder and producer of the investor Web site Saint's Sense. He has been investing and trading for over 15 years. He employs conservative strategies in assessing equities and appraising value while minimizing downside risk. His decisions are based in part on management, growth prospects, return on equity and price-to-earnings as well as macroeconomic factors. He is an investor who seeks opportunities whether on the long or short side and believes in changing positions as information changes.
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