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Apple Bottom and Call Buy Alert

Stocks in this article: AAPL

If you are a student of Dow Theory, have a solid understanding of Fibonacci ratios and Elliott Wave principles, then the price action of Apple over the past nine months isn't so surprising. In fact it is exactly as one should expect.

So, in the same manner that I called the bottom of the S&P in 2009 to the dollar, that fateful price of 666, a call made a full five months prior (Nov. 10, 2008), I'm going to call the bottom of Apple in the spring of 2013 using similar methods.

The analysis is very simple. Apple's long run up to its high price of $705, was the first wave of a super cycle. The current correction is wave two of that super cycle, the first two components of a five-wave cycle. So far, they are picture perfect.

Wave one is comprised of five waves up, with wave three a perfect Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 times the length of wave one.

Wave two is comprised of three waves down, referred to as A-B-C. The A wave and C wave should be equal in length. Given those requirements, wave two will bottom at 390, plus or minus a point or two.

So far the waves are performing exactly as the Elliott Wave Principles dictate. The 390 level is also exactly a 50% retracement, a natural golden ratio.

This is where you place your buy order. It's where we expect the bottom to be, the beginning of a third wave up, the extent of which is typically 1.618 times the length of wave one, so it may be a long ride to the upside. In this case, the length of wave one is 627 points, therefore the wave three target is:

627 x 1.618 = 1014 added to the bottom 390 = 1404

The third wave is the strongest and longest of the five wave form, often referred to as an impulsive wave. This is the golden egg.

The strategy we recommend is to sell calls all the way up to the target, thereby protecting the downside and increasing your potential profit to the upside. That is all.

-- Written by Ernie Varitimos, author of the Apple Investor blog.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Ernie Varitimos has a long history with Apple as an investor, trader and consumer of its technology. He started his career as a rocket scientist and has spent the past 25 years driving, controlling and influencing technology in the financial industry. Ernie is a former hedge fund manager and current futures trader.
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