The Digital Skeptic: 'Per Capita' Look at Web Makes Fools of Investors
The value-free individual
But those figures do not capture the pure destructive power of the Web. For that investors need ask this one simple question: "What did it cost over the past 15 years for the Internet to wind up making the pittance it does from any one individual?"
Remember, mere hard costs reflected in expenses are not enough. What we want is the stock multiple affecting opportunity costs. That is what we all gave up in terms of sales, opportunity and value up to wind up with the no-revenue per-user Web we have.
Believe it or not, using a per-person analysis, it's easy to figure out just how bad things are.
Take the music industry. In February, the Web went agog when the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry reported that after more than a decade of collapse, for the first time since 1998 -- when total sales were about $38 billion -- total music revenues actually rose a bit last year, to $16.2 billion.Never mind the 56% drop in sales. On a per-user basis, a much darker image emerges. The number of accessible music consumers has risen dramatically during that decade. Irish mobile marketing research firm mobiThinking estimates there were 4.2 billion total global cell subscribers last year. Say you knock off a billion users as not being able to access a song from their phones. That leaves a cool 3 billion potential music customers worldwide. Let's argue that these consumers consumed music on a below-average 1998 basis. Say they bought a $15 album four times a year, or $60 per year per user spent. Multiply our 3 billion-person market by that expected spender user, and we get an expected $180 billion worldwide music market. But what happened? We were stupid enough to give $164 billion in sales away, and a marvelous potential market was vaporized to wind up with the $16 billion in actual music sales we got. The investor punchline -- or punch in the face, I think is closer to it -- is this: Similar hundred-billion-dollar markets were vaporized in publishing, the law, financial services and all the rest of the gutted information economy verticals. Once you realize the golden age that was given up to have the Web we have, you realize the Internet is the cruelest joke of all.
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