Another stock that's quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade is MGIC Investment (MTG), which is a provider of private mortgage insurance in the United States. This stock has exploded higher so far in 2013, with shares up a whopping 86%.
If you take a look at the chart for MGIC Investment, you'll see that this stock has recently pulled back after a monster run, with shares dropping from its high of $6.19 to its recent low of $4.32 a share. During that pullback, shares of MTG have been making mostly lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of MTG have formed a double bottom at $4.31 to $4.32 a share, and the stock is now quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.
Shares of MTG broke out last Thursday above some near-term overhead resistance at $4.70 a share with heavy upside volume. Volume for that breakout registered 38 million shares, which is well above its three-month average action of 16.84 million shares. Market players should now look for long-biased trades in MTG as long as it's trending above $4.70 or $4.31 a share, and then once it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $5 to $5.24 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 16.84 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then MTG will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high of $6.19 a share. Any high-volume move above $6.19 will then put $7 to $8 into range for shares of MTG.Traders can look to buy MTG off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right around $4.70 to $4.31 a share. One could also buy MTG off strength once it clears $5 to $5.24 a share with volume and then simply use a stop that sits just below $4.70 a share. I would add to either position if MTG clears its 52-week high at $6.19 a share with heavy upside volume. This stock isn't loved on Wall Street, since the current short interest as a percentage of the float for MTG is very high at 19.7%. If the bears are wrong on MTG in the short-term, and this stock triggers that breakout, then we could easily be on the cusp of a giant short-squeeze.
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