This Day On The Street
Continue to site right-arrow
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
TheStreet Open House

S&P 500 Hits 1H Target at 1567, Risk to 1348 by Year's End

Stocks in this article: DIAQQQSPY

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- While most market strategists and fundamental analysts are raising their year-end price targets for the S&P 500, I am not. I say we have reached my first-half target, my semiannual risky level at 1566.9. I predict the S&P 500 will decline to my annual value level at 1348.3 at some point by year's end.

While Wall Street tells investors that "no one can time the market," I say you can time the market! I have found that it is easier to be a market timer at a bottom than at a market top, however. This is why my current suggested investment strategy has been to raise cash to at least 50% on strength to risky levels.

In reality, fundamental analysts are trying to time the market when they raise year-end price targets, and they are calling for additional upward momentum when they call for P/E multiple-expansion.

Here's a summary of my major market-timing calls since the end of 1999:

At the end of 1999, with the Nasdaq at 4069, I made a market-timing call saying that I did not know how high the Nasdaq can go in 2000, but the Nasdaq will decline into the 3500 to 3000 range sometime during the year.



In March 2000, with the Nasdaq above 5000, I told investors to reduce holdings in tech stocks by at least 50%. The high was 5132 and I re-iterated my call for Nasdaq 3500 to 3000 by the end of that year. The low in May 2000 was 3043, then after a rebound to 4289 into July, the Nasdaq traded as low as 2252 in December 2000.

My next major market-timing call was to be bullish for the Nasdaq beginning in July in 2002 with the Nasdaq below 1200. I reiterated this bullish call in October 2002 with a Nasdaq low of 1109 that month.

1 of 3

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!
DOW 16,805.41 +127.51 0.76%
S&P 500 1,964.58 +13.76 0.71%
NASDAQ 4,483.7150 +30.9230 0.69%

Brokerage Partners

Rates from Bankrate.com

  • Mortgage
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs