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The Next Big Catalysts From BlackBerry

Stocks in this article: BBRY GOOG NOK

Therefore, it suggests that they know there is going to be huge demand for these phones from users. BlackBerry management probably is already well aware of how the quarter is going and orders from carriers for the Q10s allows them to make this kind of statement.

It seems to be sand-bagging about next quarter being breakeven. BlackBerry was breakeven this quarter. This was a surprise. They brought back a hint of future guidance to this earnings report by saying that they would be breakeven again next quarter. Yet, it would shock me if the company was not getting a steady increase month-to-month of new phone orders from carriers. With the new savings from their CORE restructuring program, the higher margins from the new devices, the new Q10s coming, I would be shocked if BlackBerry management wasn't sand-bagging on the Fiscal first-quarter profitability. I expect it to be wildly profitable. We will see in the June earnings call.

Licensing deals. The stock has flown up every time there's a rumor of a potential buyout of BlackBerry. These rumors usually seem to involve Lenovo. I think it's unrealistic to expect such a deal, but a joint venture, strategic investment, or licensing deal are all much more palatable and likely to happen as this year rolls on. Possible partners could include:

  • LG
  • Lenovo
  • Samsung
  • Sony
  • Amazon
  • HP
  • Facebook
  • Cisco
  • IBM
Full buyout. Any of the American and Japanese companies listed above could be candidates for a full-blown buyout of BlackBerry. And I would even put Google (GOOG) on the list of companies that would probably want to take a close look at BBRY in a buyout scenario. BlackBerry has now gone through its darkest days, which are now behind it. It's finally in a position of strength to have conversations with all of these companies about a possible deal. It doesn't need a deal but could accept one, if it came along.

Mike Lazaridis is now off the board and this could also be a powerful signal to potential buyers that this is a company ready to deal -- instead of one that will stubbornly refuse a fair deal that is offered. There's a valuable subscriber base, intellectual property, new phones, a strong product roadmap for capitalizing on the "Internet of things", and evidence that real customers are willing to drop their Android or iPhone to move to this new platform.

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