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Stocks Under $10 with 50-100% upside potential - 14 days FREE!

BlackBerry Carves Out Profitable Niche

Stocks in this article: BBRY

It's been a wild ride for shareholders in the past year as the below chart illustrates. The trailing 12-month revenue-per-share better show a great deal of improvement to support the current share price. BBRY Chart BBRY data by YCharts

Analysts polled by FactSet forecast a fourth-quarter loss of 31 cents a share on revenue of $2.85 billion. That represents the bar that BBRY has to at least reach, and ideally exceed, to support the mostly upside trend on the stock's share price.

The new BlackBerry Z10 has been receiving positive reviews since its release in February in Canada and other international markets. Yet the launch in the critical U.S. market was delayed until late last week, and rumors have been circulating that the first week of sales hasn't been exuberant.

A new kind of BlackBerry keyboard smartphone called the Q10 is not scheduled to be released in the U.S. for two to three more months. BBRY's many users have stayed loyal partly because they prefer a physical keyboard over the touch-screen on the iPhone and most Android devices.

Morgan Stanley analyst Gelblum contends that BBRY can survive as a "niche player." He reportedly believes the company and its products don't have to approach the success that Apple has with the iPhone.

"There is going to be a billion smartphones sold this year. A five percent market share would be 50 million sold, that's 12 million a quarter. If they BBRY are selling 12 million a quarter, they are doing back flips," Gelblum said. Maybe the S&P 500 and investors will do back flips and jump higher, too!

At the time of publication, the author was long AAPL.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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