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TheStreet Open House

Kamikaze: Apple to $1,600

Stocks in this article: AAPL

Technical analysis is all fine and good. It's not my bag, but I respect those who are good at it. But the one thing the best of the best always tell me -- it doesn't mix with emotion.

I'm not sure what an "ABC Corrective Wave" is, but that's what Varitimos, who runs the AppleInvestor blog, sees on the chart as AAPL bottoms and prepares to take off. Of course, it's not a perfect ABC Corrective Wave because, as Varitimos notes, "Normally the A wave equals the C wave, but in this case the C wave has truncated, turning up just short of the ideal formation."

OK. I dig. You can make the chart sing for you just like researchers with their data and pollsters with their statistics.

Ernie is a self-proclaimed "Apple Evangelist." He anchors his blog with a YouTube video tribute to Steve Jobs. And technical analysis tells him to set a price target of $1,600 for AAPL by the end of 2014.


I'm guessing he would argue that emotion never enters the equation. That we ought to draw a distinction between what the chart objectively tells him from his "evangelizing." I'm certain that's how he feels. Certain that emotion has zero influence on his quantitative analysis. But, really, isn't that the cornerstone of emotion? That, at our most emotional points, we're unable to sense the impact psychology has on our cognitive output?

Maybe Ernie is correct. Maybe Apple will knock public opinion on its ass and soar 203% between over the next 21 months. Maybe. But I'm not sure I would load up on the LEAPS call options or even the common stock just yet. Leave some money on the table. Make sure the anticipated run is real. There's plenty of room between $461 and $1,600.

-- Written by Rocco Pendola in Santa Monica, Calif.

Rocco Pendola is TheStreet's Director of Social Media. Pendola's daily contributions to TheStreet frequently appear on CNBC and at various top online properties, such as Forbes.
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