This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
EXCLUSIVE OFFER: Jim Cramer's Protégé, Dave Peltier, only buys Stock Under $10 that he thinks could potentially double or triple in the next 6 to 12-months. See what he's trading today with a 14-day FREE pass.

Another Back-Half Story for Tiffany?

Editor's Note: This article was originally published on Real Money at 9:30 a.m. EDT on March 22. To see the latest commentary as it's published, sign up for a free trial of Real Money.

NEW YORK (Real Money) --Tiffany (TIF) lowered earnings guidance in each quarter of 2012.

The most recent guide down came when the company posted disappointing holiday comparable sales numbers and suggested fourth-quarter earnings would come in at the low end of the expected range (the low end was $1.35 a share).

Well, EPS came in above that range at $1.40 and management did NOT take down the most recent 2013 guidance of 6%-9% earnings growth. The market cheered. Finally, no guide down. But to be fair, the 6%-9% growth issued in January was a guide down from the Street's 15% growth expectation at the time.

Before you celebrate, let's look a little deeper inside the blue box. First-quarter earnings are expected to decline 15%-20%, but don't worry, growth returns in the second and third quarters. Does any of this sound familiar? (This link requires a subscription.) When the company had a back-half story last year, it did not pan out.

Fourth-quarter holiday sales were basically in line with the exception of the New York flagship and Asia (both decelerated). Japan got a little better. But let's look at the two- year comp trend to put things in perspective. Worldwide comps decelerated to 5% on a two-year basis vs. 17% in the third quarter.  Americas went from 16% in the third quarter to 1% in the fourth quarter, while Asia went to 19% from 32% (the Flagship New York store went to -1% from 29%). The market that held up best was Japan (went to 6% from 9% two-year comp). But in this market we have to wonder what price adjustments due to a weak yen will do to volumes.

There were plenty of data points to keep expectations low going into the TIF report. Swiss watch exports in February decreased, Swatch has been notably less bullish than is typical, Chow Tai Fook (China's largest jeweler) comps decreased 7% and in general luxury players have been warning the no gifting trend in China has hurt big-ticket items.

Finally, maybe the biggest relief is not another guide down (if you don't count the first quarter).

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
DOW 17,079.57 -42.44 -0.25%
S&P 500 1,996.74 -3.38 -0.17%
NASDAQ 4,557.6950 -11.9260 -0.26%

Our Tweets

Brokerage Partners

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs